The NeonUtil utility bot has an incredibly useful streak estimation function (neon global
).
I won't be going into how to use the command, because they've got a great guide in their support server, but I'll give some further recources that you can use to expand upon global's results. The common global gives you results in both; average Streak & Tierate, I'll talk about what you can do with these.
The chance of surviving your next battle is simply 1-1/Avg_Streak
, so your chance of surviving the next 500 battles would then simply be (1-1/Avg_Streak)^500
.
If you turn this function around, you'll get the function for calculating the n-th percentile of your streak! And thus the median, which is honestly a more accurate depiction of a "normal" streak, rather than your average.
We can also calculate your average streak Exp, even considering tierate! Although I do admit this isn't really math, it's more of a glorified for-loop at this point.